In a two-child family one child is called William, and each boy is named William with probability p. What is the probability that the other child is also a boy?
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A family has two children. One child is called William, and each boy is called William independently with probability p. What is the probability that the other child is also a boy? Is it consistent with the answers to the two simpler versions: knowing only that one child is a boy, and knowing that one child is called William?
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