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You have 2 tokens and want 5, betting each turn as much as you can without overshooting 5. Each bet wins with probability 1/3. What is the probability you reach 5?

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You have 2 tokens and want to reach 5 before you run out. Each turn you bet as many tokens as you can, but never more than you need to reach 5, and each bet wins with probability 1/3. What is the probability that you reach 5 tokens? Candidates report this question with different numbers from one sitting to the next.

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